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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by Terrapin Station on Mon Mar 10 13:13:15 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:09:07 2008.

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Actually, IIRC, taxis weren't counted pre-airtrain.

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Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:15:02 2008, in response to Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:13:02 2008.

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In addition, it's quite obvious that parked cars also decreased at the airport as Jamaica AirTrain rose. That would also assume that we are throwing parked cars into the mix of the public transit access which wasn't there before either.
Unfortunately also, Taxi access wasn't included in the early stats.

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:16:14 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by Terrapin Station on Mon Mar 10 13:13:15 2008.

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Haha, I mentioned that just now too! I SWEAR I did not ready your post before I posted!

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(584113)

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:17:59 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 13:12:37 2008.

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Well we all know that Jamaica DID take HB passengers away, neither of us know how many. The stats are NOT perfect world stats, we all know that switching between modes DID happen. That is my point, Jamaica made the pie bigger, so obviously all the other slices got smaller. Jamaica is a MAJOR slice of pie, so obviously that will make all the other slices smaller, as it has.

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:21:44 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by Terrapin Station on Mon Mar 10 13:12:47 2008.

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I don't know....taxis as you mention. There were no people arriving via the LIRR (they had to get there somehow, I know). You didn't have subway access via the E (they had to come from somewhere too). Parked cars went down by almost 20%, and since there are more flights, people are still coming, so they are coming "somehow". I doubt they are all cramming onto the Q10, but even if they were, that's still "public transportation", and there's no evidence for that anyway.
All I know is that HB had 4000 more riders than it did prior in the last month's stats. Jamaica was carrying almost 227,000 riders a month. That's a HUGE piece of pie, so obviously all the other slices of pie went down with such a major slice of pie thrown in.

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Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by Terrapin Station on Mon Mar 10 13:31:26 2008, in response to Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:13:02 2008.

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No, I'm not wrong.

pies

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 13:33:56 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:17:59 2008.

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That is my point, Jamaica made the pie bigger, so obviously all the other slices got smaller. Jamaica is a MAJOR slice of pie, so obviously that will make all the other slices smaller, as it has.

Again, Jamaica only made the pie bigger if it encouraged people to fly. The sample size is still number of airline passengers.

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:40:59 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 13:33:56 2008.

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Okay, I understand that....but then we still have to consider after that Jamaica is carrying 227,000 people. That is a MAJOR slice of pie. Howard Beach is still carrying similar counts it did before. It's % went down though as Jamaica is a MAJOR slice of pie. Where all those people came from I have no idea, but it's obvious that with a portion that didn't even exist prior, that such a large slice of pie will cannibilize the other percentages too. Jamaica didn't exist prior to AirTrain. In addition, they didn't include Taxi people. That's actually TWO slices of pie that were trown into the percentage pool. Those two extra slices effect the % we had for HB prior. Either way, the percentages of the old HB stats are skewed, and that was my point - that they don't give a clear picture. We can not say Well HB used to get (let's say) 4% and now it only gets 3.5%, as we added other slices to it.

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Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:49:27 2008, in response to Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by Terrapin Station on Mon Mar 10 13:31:26 2008.

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Okay, I understand what you are saying. But that only applies to the "perfect world" scenario, where all things remain equal. But again, we know that Jamaica DID cannibilize HB people, we don't know how many. Jamaica did not just take people off of cars and buses. Some people switched to Jamaica from HB when it became a subway option. Passenger flights also rose, and parking went down. All those factors still have to be considered as the pie DID rise (there are more passenger flights). We also have to remember that unfortunately, they didn't include taxi people in there for whatever reason in the pie of old stats, which are now included. That is another slice added.

The basic point is that adding Jamaica does skew the statistics. As does the taxi people. As does the fact that people switched from HB to Jamaica. The slices of pie DID change, as did the percentages.

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Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by Terrapin Station on Mon Mar 10 13:50:33 2008, in response to Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:49:27 2008.

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Okay, I understand what you are saying. But that only applies to the "perfect world" scenario, where all things remain equal.

Yes! That's the scenario you brought up and which we were talking about!!!!!

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Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 14:07:40 2008, in response to Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by Terrapin Station on Mon Mar 10 13:50:33 2008.

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I only brought that up to try and explain how the HB statistics will not be the same after adding another slice of pie. The "even" numbers were used for illustative purposes only, and I said that we can't consider that anyone switched modes. Perhaps it was wrong to put it way, because we KNOW that they DID switch modes. All things are NOT constant. HB people DID switch to Jamaica (no idea how many). Jamaica brings in a whole new set of numbers that didn't exist before AirTrain. It HAS to get it's riders from "somewhere". And that was even before I thought about the taxi people. That's actually two slices of pie being thrown in that weren't there in the older stats.
I was only saying why the HB % stats don't give a clear picture, and they don't. That's it. Saying that "HB used to be 4% and now is 3.5%" can't be used as we don't know how many people switched from HB to Jamaica. Jamaica took some of it's riders. HB used to be the ONLY subway access, now there are two (and three actually if you count the J, but that's small).

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 14:31:48 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 13:40:59 2008.

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In addition, they didn't include Taxi people. That's actually TWO slices of pie that were trown into the percentage pool.

The taxi people were there; they just weren't broken out in the reports. They were still included in the total number of airline passengers.

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Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 14:32:33 2008, in response to Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 14:07:40 2008.

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I only brought that up to try and explain how the HB statistics will not be the same after adding another slice of pie.

Except they are the same!

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Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 14:58:22 2008, in response to Re: Bad data; Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 14:32:33 2008.

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But only after people left for Jamaica too! The percentages are not the same.

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 14:59:33 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 14:31:48 2008.

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So now they are taking those same passengers and pulling out a percent for them....that would make all the other percents go down, no?

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 15:05:59 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 14:59:33 2008.

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So now they are taking those same passengers and pulling out a percent for them....that would make all the other percents go down, no?

NO

Scenario 1: Total # airline passengers - 1,000,000
# who park - 200,000
# who use Jamaica - 200,000
# who use Howard Beach - 100,000
# who take taxis - n/a
# who take buses - n/a
# who are dropped off - n/a


Scenario 2: Total # airline passengers - 1,000,000
# who park - 200,000
# who use Jamaica - 200,000
# who use Howard Beach - 100,000
# who take taxis - 300,000
# who take buses - 100,000
# who are dropped off - 100,000


Scenario 3: Total # airline passengers - 1,000,000
# who park - 300,000
# who use Jamaica - 0
# who use Howard Beach - 100,000
# who take taxis - 400,000
# who take buses - 100,000
# who are dropped off - 100,000

For each scenario, what percentage of total airline passengers use Howard Beach?

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 15:31:40 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by RIPTA42HopeTunnel on Mon Mar 10 15:05:59 2008.

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But even so, we KNOW that some HB people left for Jamaica!
In any of those situations, you are assuming no one from HB would switch to Jamaica once opened, and that the amount of airline passengers remained constant.

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 15:35:57 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Mon Mar 10 15:31:40 2008.

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Also, we have to get off this tangent, and I know it's as much my fault, but now to confuse things even further, both of us are using speculative data instead of actual data, which is only confusing things further.
The point is none of us know how many people left for Jamaica from HB. But some no doubt did. You can't assume they all began driving any more than I can say they all went to Jamaica. Parking stats show parking went down. I have no idea where those people went, as more people are using the airport. They are getting there somehow, and they aren't using their cars to the same extent that they used to based on the stats. I dont know if those people are all going to Jamaica, or if they are going to HB replacing some of those that went left Howard Beach. There is no evidence that all the "former HB" people are now hindered and driving instead. In fact, it would appear otherwise.

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Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question

Posted by SMAZ on Tue Mar 11 02:13:51 2008, in response to Re: Diagrams Re: Air Train question, posted by Fred G on Mon Mar 10 10:16:01 2008.

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Imagine what an AirTrain to 76th St Branch would do this board. Funny thing is that is probably what the IND had in mind in the 1940s.

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One month ago yesterday...

Posted by SMAZ on Tue Mar 11 02:17:25 2008, in response to Air Train question, posted by Jeff Rosen on Sun Feb 10 09:38:18 2008.

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...you started this thread.

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