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| Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning (1005137) | |
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| (1005137) | |
Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by dAND124 on Mon Nov 5 18:32:15 2012 that seems a little high to me but i think Obama will win |
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| (1005157) | |
Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by AlM on Mon Nov 5 18:57:22 2012, in response to Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by dAND124 on Mon Nov 5 18:32:15 2012. He's basing it on historic accuracy of the average of the polls.The average of the polls are predicting Obama for Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa, and Wisconsin. They could be wrong, but it would be a pretty extreme collective screw-up. |
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| (1005194) | |
Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by AlM on Mon Nov 5 20:03:10 2012, in response to Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by dAND124 on Mon Nov 5 18:32:15 2012. Actually 86.3%. Pretty steady climb from 61.1% on October 12th. |
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| (1005263) | |
now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by DaNd124 on Mon Nov 5 22:30:05 2012, in response to Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by dAND124 on Mon Nov 5 18:32:15 2012. it's now up to 92.2%... |
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Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by Easy on Mon Nov 5 22:41:47 2012, in response to now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by DaNd124 on Mon Nov 5 22:30:05 2012. Just like his dad! The new king of chutzpah! |
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| (1005277) | |
Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by DANd124 on Mon Nov 5 23:33:11 2012, in response to Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by Easy on Mon Nov 5 22:41:47 2012. ?????? |
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| (1005281) | |
Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by LuchAAA on Mon Nov 5 23:41:34 2012, in response to Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by DANd124 on Mon Nov 5 23:33:11 2012. thanks for turning me on to Free Republic. I never knew about that site until you alerted me. thanks. They think the weather in Wisconsin will hurt the turnout. Here in Tampa and down in Miami it sure could.What does "124" in your handle mean? Nate Silver is a hero in the liberal community. Despised by GOP supporters. |
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| (1005290) | |
Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by Chris R16/R2730 on Tue Nov 6 00:07:55 2012, in response to Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by AlM on Mon Nov 5 18:57:22 2012. Not really. State polling is notoriously inaccurate. In 2004 14 of the 18 polls conducted in Ohio in the last week had Kerry up an average of 2. He lost. |
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| (1005310) | |
Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Tue Nov 6 00:37:01 2012, in response to now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by DaNd124 on Mon Nov 5 22:30:05 2012. Poor Mr. Silver must be having palpitations. |
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| (1005464) | |
Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 6 08:05:07 2012, in response to Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by LuchAAA on Mon Nov 5 23:41:34 2012. Nate Silver is a hero in the liberal community.True but ridiculous. He's just applying good science to the data at hand. This time it happens to favor the Democrats. Next time it may not. |
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| (1005466) | |
Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning |
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Posted by AlM on Tue Nov 6 08:10:27 2012, in response to now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by DaNd124 on Mon Nov 5 22:30:05 2012. CO and VA are up over 80% now. I think the polls are slightly biased toward Obama, but at this point I'd predict 303 electoral votes.Nate has FL at 52.5% Obama, but I don't buy that one. |
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303 |
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Posted by AlM on Wed Nov 7 07:39:34 2012, in response to Re: now up to 92.2% Re: Nate Silver says Obama has 85% chance of winning, posted by AlM on Tue Nov 6 08:10:27 2012. Not to gloat or anything ...Actually, all I can claim credit for is spending the time to read and understand Silver's methodology and conclude that it is scientifically correct and unbiased. |
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Re: 303 |
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Posted by GP38/R42 Chris on Wed Nov 7 07:42:48 2012, in response to 303, posted by AlM on Wed Nov 7 07:39:34 2012. While that is the case. The swing states were an extremely close margin. It's a great case of how important everyone's vote is.As for the result, it is what it is. Am I happy? No, I think we needed a change, and I think Romney would have been good. But I do vow to try and be less critical of Obama. I have to be happy for the next four years, and it won't help being critical. I'll do my best. Congratulations President Obama on your reelection. |
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Re: 332 |
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Posted by R30A on Wed Nov 7 08:16:26 2012, in response to 303, posted by AlM on Wed Nov 7 07:39:34 2012. Obama is still ahead in Florida with 100% in.Still close, but I think he'll take it... |
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