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(2006033)

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Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 21 16:54:55 2024

In no particular order:

1. In today's economy almost any business can go anywhere. If a major corporation decides to leave New York and relocate to someplace like Dallas or Phoenix it almost certainly can do so. And this isn't even mentioning WFH.

2. Paying unionized public sector workers generous salaries, especially when combined with the ability to retire much too young on large pensions, is economically unsustainable.

3. Having the country's widest and most compassionate array of social services is also economically unsustainable. It also may encourage the in-migration of people with social service needs, though that's admittedly unproven.

4. Regardless of what the statistics may show, a few well-publicized violent crimes make the city seem dangerous. Speaking of crime, although these decisions happen on the state rather than city level, eliminating most bail and paroling criminals long before the ends of their sentences is an unmitigated disaster.

5. Urban amenities like Broadway shows and upscale nightclubs may attract a few people to the city, but far more focus on jobs and safety.



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(2006036)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Thu Nov 21 17:27:49 2024, in response to Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 21 16:54:55 2024.

1. In today's economy almost any business can go anywhere.

Del is learning this big time.

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(2006042)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by AlM on Thu Nov 21 19:13:23 2024, in response to Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 21 16:54:55 2024.

far more focus on jobs and safety

That's why co-op and condo prices are down so much and there are so many rental vacancies.

Actually, plenty of people are aware that NYC is a fairly safe city.


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(2006043)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Catfish 44 on Thu Nov 21 19:56:46 2024, in response to Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 21 16:54:55 2024.

Number 2 is a doozy

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(2006053)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu Nov 21 21:32:34 2024, in response to Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Peter Rosa on Thu Nov 21 16:54:55 2024.

What should the public sector union workers be paid?

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(2006063)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Catfish 44 on Fri Nov 22 00:18:19 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu Nov 21 21:32:34 2024.

🤔🤨🧐

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(2006072)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Fri Nov 22 09:19:37 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by AlM on Thu Nov 21 19:13:23 2024.

Yes, I heard from the FBI that there's no murders or nutin.

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(2006074)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 22 09:41:50 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by AlM on Thu Nov 21 19:13:23 2024.

That's why co-op and condo prices are down so much and there are so many rental vacancies.

That's because the city's density and extremely high construction costs make it impossible to build anything that's not really high-end. And there's also limited supply, it's not like Dallas or Atlanta where the subdivisions are popping up further out into what used to be countryside.


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(2006086)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 22 13:26:16 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 22 09:41:50 2024.

there's also limited supply

If your two decades of supposed doom and gloom had actually occurred, there would be plenty of supply as people moved out and weren't replaced.



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(2006088)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 22 13:57:30 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 22 13:26:16 2024.

New York's big population decline did not start until March 2020.

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(2006091)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by AlM on Fri Nov 22 14:35:01 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Peter Rosa on Fri Nov 22 13:57:30 2024.

That's my point. You've been saying how terrible NYC does everything for decades now, and yet people haven't left in droves. In fact, the population now is still greater than it was in 2000.

There weren't that many manufacturing and warehousing jobs left in NYC by 2000 already.



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(2006118)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Dan on Sat Nov 23 09:53:43 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Thu Nov 21 17:27:49 2024.

Telecom technology allows firms to move to let's say Texas or Florida and keep all their New York phone numbers for their client's convenience, etc.

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(2006125)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Nov 23 12:27:02 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by AlM on Fri Nov 22 14:35:01 2024.

That's my point. You've been saying how terrible NYC does everything for decades now, and yet people haven't left in droves. In fact, the population now is still greater than it was in 2000.

There weren't that many manufacturing and warehousing jobs left in NYC by 2000 already.


Disasters like the Second Avenue Subway and East Side Access could be shrugged off, as could the loss of manufacturing, because enough people were working in Manhattan office buildings to provide jobs and prosperity. All of that came to a crashing end in March 2020. While WFH became a nationwide trend, it was especially bad in New York because a high percentage of the city's jobs were the type that could be done on a remote basis. It seems like San Francisco is the only city that suffered more.

Where things go from here is still unknown. Workers are coming back to the office, slowly but surely, though whether they're doing so in sufficient numbers to prevent mass commercial mortgage defaults remains an open question.

As for manufacturing, all other issues aside New York was hit hard by most industries' move away from "vertical" manufacturing in multistory brick buildings, which are almost obsolete today, toward "horizontal" manufacturing in one-story buildings. As the latter type require much larger tracts of land it is more suitable in low-density suburban and rural areas.


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(2006126)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Catfish 44 on Sat Nov 23 12:32:40 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu Nov 21 21:32:34 2024.

I’m still waiting for his response

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(2006129)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by AlM on Sat Nov 23 13:28:17 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Nov 23 12:27:02 2024.

whether they're doing so in sufficient numbers to prevent mass commercial mortgage defaults remains an open question

You keep ignoring innovative methods to turn bulky office buildings into residential buildings by removing the core.



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(2006197)

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Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn

Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Nov 24 12:32:48 2024, in response to Re: Lessons New Yorkers must learn, posted by AlM on Sat Nov 23 13:28:17 2024.

You keep ignoring innovative methods to turn bulky office buildings into residential buildings by removing the core.

New York cannot survive in anything like its present form if it's primarily residential. It needs JOBS.


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