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(2005894)

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WFH

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Nov 19 21:16:01 2024

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-dying-nyc-offices-nearly-120015393.html

85% of office buildings are full again in NYC.

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(2005906)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 08:56:50 2024, in response to WFH, posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Nov 19 21:16:01 2024.

That's a lot of sick, miserable and useless people who can't figure out how to use Google Meet with decent equipment.

Same day I saw a headline that says all of the growth in NC are telecommuters. That'st he brainy area.

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(2005918)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Mitch45 on Wed Nov 20 12:25:48 2024, in response to WFH, posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Nov 19 21:16:01 2024.

Its all about the economy. Empty offices buildings equal empty delis, restaurants, clothing stores, et al.

My company went to a hybrid work model a few months ago but people were so miserable, they rescinded it and now we are all WFH again.

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(2005922)

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Re: WFH

Posted by AlM on Wed Nov 20 12:43:30 2024, in response to WFH, posted by BILLBKLYN on Tue Nov 19 21:16:01 2024.

85% of office buildings are full again in NYC.

Um, no. Traffic is up to 85% of pre-pandemic levels.

- Office buildings weren't 100% full pre-pandemic.
- Lots more people are coming in 3 days a week.
- Lots of employers are reducing square feet per employee, independent of covid. (My company has cut its space by about 50% in 8 years, even though people are expected to show up 3 days a week.)

Big difference. Which doesn't mean that Peter Rosa's disastrous view is correct either.



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(2005928)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 13:35:49 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Nov 20 12:25:48 2024.

"Empty offices buildings equal empty delis, restaurants, clothing stores, et al."

Very hard to go to any of those when you are stuck in an office after wasting your time commuting. That's zero dollars to all of them.

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(2005932)

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Re: WFH

Posted by AlM on Wed Nov 20 14:18:53 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 13:35:49 2024.

Very hard to go to any of those when you are stuck in an office after wasting your time commuting. That's zero dollars to all of them.

That tends to be true in suburban office complexes. Not the way it works in Manhattan, though. Probably because the trip down the elevator and down the street is less than the trip to drive somewhere in the burbs.






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(2005936)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Peter Rosa on Wed Nov 20 14:58:28 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by AlM on Wed Nov 20 12:43:30 2024.

Traffic is up to 85% of pre-pandemic levels.
- Office buildings weren't 100% full pre-pandemic.
- Lots more people are coming in 3 days a week.
- Lots of employers are reducing square feet per employee, independent of covid. (My company has cut its space by about 50% in 8 years, even though people are expected to show up 3 days a week.)
Big difference. Which doesn't mean that Peter Rosa's disastrous view is correct either.


The big question, for which an answer may be still sometime off, is whether these occupancy levels will be enough to stave off a wave of commercial real estate loan defaults as leases expire and rent revenues drop. Given the long duration of commercial leases there surely are many businesses that will downsize their space requirements once freed from their lease obligations. How many and how much is still unknown.




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(2005945)

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Re: WFH

Posted by AlM on Wed Nov 20 16:24:19 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Peter Rosa on Wed Nov 20 14:58:28 2024.


The big question, for which an answer may be still sometime off, is whether these occupancy levels will be enough to stave off a wave of commercial real estate loan defaults as leases expire and rent revenues drop.

There will be a wave. Some bad things will happen. It seems unlikely those bad things will rival the 2008 financial crash. And of course, if it is as bad, voters will blame Trump, even though it won't be his fault for a change.

(As an aside, Trump has an opportunity to produce an inflationary recession by imposing massive tariffs. Let's hope he doesn't take it.)


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(2005947)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 16:46:20 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by AlM on Wed Nov 20 16:24:19 2024.

I'm glad you already admitted to blaming Trump for Buydens massive tarriff's.

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(2005948)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 16:56:33 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Peter Rosa on Wed Nov 20 14:58:28 2024.

Everyone talks about commercial real estate loans
but the biggest elephant in the room is the oil lobby and who really benefits off of this garbage.
It makes commerical real estate look like the dollar menu.

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(2005949)

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Re: WFH

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:04:13 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Nov 20 12:25:48 2024.

Agree 100% about it being a domino affect. If I owned a company, I would want my underlings working in my office space, not on the telephone.

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(2005950)

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Re: WFH

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:04:15 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Nov 20 12:25:48 2024.

Agree 100% about it being a domino affect. If I owned a company, I would want my underlings working in my office space, not on the telephone.

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(2005951)

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Re: WFH

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:04:18 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Nov 20 12:25:48 2024.

Agree 100% about it being a domino affect. If I owned a company, I would want my underlings working in my office space, not on the telephone.

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(2005952)

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Re: WFH

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:06:11 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 13:35:49 2024.

Not before work, during lunch, or after work. Plenty of commuters "wait rush hour out" at a bar or restaurant, or shop for an hour or 2 or 3 after work. I know I did it plenty of times myself.

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(2005953)

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Re: WFH

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:06:51 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by AlM on Wed Nov 20 12:43:30 2024.

Take it up with the author, not me.

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(2005955)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Easy on Wed Nov 20 17:37:47 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by Mitch45 on Wed Nov 20 12:25:48 2024.

Are the people at your company hard to get along with or were workers miserable over the commute?

My office in the LA area has been on a hybrid schedule for 2+ years and I think that most prefer it. I’d guess that half the come in voluntarily for more days than are required. There is a vocal minority that don’t want to go in at all, but they are those same people already the complained the most about whatever even before the pandemic.

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(2005956)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 17:38:42 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:06:11 2024.

I like being at home, married or not.
Commute times just take me away from bars, restaurants or shops.

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(2005957)

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Re: WFH

Posted by Orange Blossom Special on Wed Nov 20 17:39:33 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:04:18 2024.

I had an a-hole consultant say this once about 15 years ago.

Even though, guess what, the office is paperless and electronic, and most of the teams are out of town and spread out.

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(2005962)

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Re: WFH

Posted by AlM on Wed Nov 20 18:13:11 2024, in response to Re: WFH, posted by BILLBKLYN on Wed Nov 20 17:06:51 2024.

No, you misinterpreted the author.

Author: October occupancy reaching 86.2% of pre-pandemic levels

You: 85% of office buildings are full again in NYC.

Your statement is a far stronger one that the author's, unless it happened to be the case (which it isn't) that buildings were full pre-pandemic.





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