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| Re: $83 million (1978671) | |
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| (1979720) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Feb 3 11:59:50 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Feb 3 11:55:47 2024. Mass shooters should be called parallel killers. |
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| (1979722) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:18:03 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Jeff Rosen on Sat Feb 3 10:59:52 2024. Not in the slightest.The contention was made that Biden won't make it through another term. I'm saying that multiple presidents in worse health have still made it 5 more years. I'm not saying that it's 100% OK that the Democratic candidate is Biden, because less than totally healthy people have been president before. Just that he's got a good chance of survival. |
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| (1979723) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by https://salaamallah.com/ on Sat Feb 3 12:19:17 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Feb 3 11:55:47 2024. IAWTP |
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| (1979724) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by https://salaamallah.com/ on Sat Feb 3 12:19:27 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Feb 3 11:59:50 2024. IAWTP |
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| (1979725) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:20:03 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 11:31:09 2024. We all know he says things that he didn't intend to say. The real question for discussion is how much do those circumstances make him a bad candidate for the presidency. |
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| (1979726) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:21:58 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Feb 3 11:39:56 2024. You keep on bringing up Alzheimer's. I never brought it up. It's not relevant to Biden or Trump - neither of them is showing signs of Alzheimer's. |
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| (1979727) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:23:45 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Feb 3 11:43:19 2024. No, 1944 is not the better example. The question is whether Biden can succeed in being president for 5 more years. And anecdotal support for the contention that he can is that FDR was in much worse shape and made it 5 more years. |
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| (1979728) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:25:19 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Feb 3 11:55:47 2024. And Donald Trump is a serial defamer. |
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| (1979730) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Feb 3 12:35:41 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:21:58 2024. I disagree about Trump. |
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| (1979731) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Sat Feb 3 12:48:40 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Feb 3 11:39:56 2024. That length of survival is quite uncommon, the average is four to eight years, though not unheard-of.An aunt by marriage suffered 17 years. I think the 4 years is closer to the amount of time they need to be institutionalized. Most will die from something else. Once the swallowing reflex goes, the victim will aspirate food into the lungs and die from pneumonia. Reviving the Covid question, did the person die from Alzheimers or with Alzheimers? There are various forms of dementia. Alzheimers is specific. Unfortunately, there aren't medical tests that can confirm an Alzheimers diagnosis. There may be an inexpensive blood test in the works. Right now, a brain autopsy after death is the only confirmation. |
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| (1979732) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Feb 3 12:54:41 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:23:45 2024. Something relevant to the ages of both Biden and Trump is that if they were Catholic bishops* they would have been retired by now. The Catholic Church is no one's idea of a progressive organization, yet it has a mandatory retirement age of 75 for bishops.* = admittedly, a ludicrous concept in Trump's case |
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| (1979744) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 14:29:42 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:20:03 2024. We'll find out at the Dem convention |
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| (1979745) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 14:43:40 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 12:23:45 2024. "...is that FDR was in much worse shape and made it 5 more years."FDR was physical. Biden's problem is not so much physical but of the obvious cognitive decline. But lets see Biden hit the campaign trail to prove to the world that he up for the campaign to put all doubts about his physical abilities concerns to rest. Then lets see what and where Trump goes for an old man. FDR was sharp as a tack up until the day he died from a stroke, most likely caused by untreated or poorly treated high blood pressure. The meds we have for that today didn't exist in 1945 He was a smoker too, not that was a contributing factor. |
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| (1979746) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Spider-Pig on Sat Feb 3 14:51:08 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 14:43:40 2024. No, there’s no “obvious cognitive decline.” |
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| (1979748) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 15:04:49 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 14:29:42 2024. So you're thinking that maybe at the convention Biden will announce he's not running, and leave it open to the convention to figure out who the candidate will be?Sure it's conceivable, but do you realize the chaos that would cause? If he decides to not run again, he's way better off announcing right after the last primary. |
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| (1979754) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 17:47:57 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 15:04:49 2024. If Biden were to announce that hes dropping out of the race, I doubt that there'd be any "chaos". Many Dems out there would not be surprised at a move like that. Some would feel relief. I believe somewhere in the minds and I phones theres a plan B.If you wanted to see chaos in the Democratic party, think of LBJ in 1968 announcing out of the blue that he will withdraw from the race. Biden withdrawing or being "asked" to withdraw would be nothing like 1968. The chaos would be mixed with relief |
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| (1979755) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 17:53:04 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 17:47:57 2024. LBJ announced on March 31, 1968. If he'd announced on August 26th, the first day of the convention, there would have been plenty of chaos. |
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| (1979757) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 18:17:00 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 17:53:04 2024. True. But There was enough chaos (coupled with confusion) April 1, 1968. Going back as an aside, He withdrew from the race when Walter Cronkite opined on his 6 o'clock newscast that we cannot win the Viet Nam war. "If I lost Cronkite, I've lost America" were his first words about his decision.The power of the media was intense in those days. |
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| (1979760) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Olog-hai on Sat Feb 3 19:14:29 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 18:17:00 2024. Cronkite sure was an evil one. |
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| (1979769) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by BILLBKLYN on Sat Feb 3 20:31:33 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sat Feb 3 15:04:49 2024. I'm betting on Big Mike,maybe Killary. |
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| (1979771) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Feb 3 21:35:21 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Fisk Ave Jim on Sat Feb 3 18:17:00 2024. There was another reason behind Johnson's decision not to run in 1968. About a year earlier, concerned that men in his family tree often died young, he commissioned a secret actuarial study in the hopes of predicting how long he would live. The actuaries concluded that he would be unlikely to live to age 65. Johnson did the math and figured that if he served another term he would have a very short retirement.The actuaries were right, as Johnson died at age 64. As for the short retirement, if he had ran and won in 1968, he would have died 24 hours after his successor's inauguration. |
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| (1979777) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 03:29:10 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Peter Rosa on Sat Feb 3 21:35:21 2024. I think it much more likely that doctors, not actuaries, told him his heart was unlikely to last through a second full term with the stress of the presidency.Actuaries are not professionally competent to predict any individual's actual life expectancy. They can only do averages of defined groups of people. Then again, actuaries sometimes make statements outside their professional competence, just like everyone else. |
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| (1979780) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Feb 4 09:37:22 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 03:29:10 2024. I think it much more likely that doctors, not actuaries, told him his heart was unlikely to last through a second full term with the stress of the presidency.Actuaries are not professionally competent to predict any individual's actual life expectancy. They can only do averages of defined groups of people. Then again, actuaries sometimes make statements outside their professional competence, just like everyone else. No doubt the actuaries consulted with physicians. Whatever the case, the report was striking in its accuracy.It wasn't hard to predict that Johnson wouldn't live a normal life span. When serving in the Senate in 1955 he had nearly died from a heart attack despite being only in his forties. In fact, in 1960 there had been some controversy about his medical fitness to serve as Kennedy's running mate. |
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| (1979785) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 10:34:54 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Feb 4 09:37:22 2024. No doubt the actuaries consulted with physicians.The closest mortality table that I know of to what the actuaries could have legitimately used is a table giving your probability of dying at a given age if you are a disabled white collar male. (Disabled means qualifying for social security disability payments.) The sample size for such a table is in the tens or hundreds of thousands of people. Such a table alone would have given a probability far higher than 50% of living at least 5 additional years at age 60. Adjusting the probability of dying upward because of a prior severe heart attack in middle age would be based only on published medical studies using vastly smaller data sets. I suppose a reputable actuary might have done that, with a physician guiding them to the best detailed medical studies to use. Obviously the result would be a wide range of probabilities. The fact that Johnson died right at the mean point of the range is sheer chance. Even more useful would be actual observations from Johnson's personal physician concerning his blood pressure, symptoms, medications, etc. |
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| (1979793) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Feb 4 11:17:03 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 10:34:54 2024. It's more of an impression than anything else, but while overall life expectancy hasn't risen much it seems less common for people, mainly men, to drop dead in roughly the 45 to 65 age range. To put it in obituary-speak, the "died suddenly" cases have decreased, even as the "died unexpectedly" cases continue their relentless increase. |
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| (1979794) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by Charles G on Sun Feb 4 11:28:36 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 10:34:54 2024. A bit of an aside to the discussion, but I do wonder what a "reputable actuary" meant in 1968.There were far fewer actuaries, and only the SOA and CAS as credentialing bodies, but I don't think they were involved in professional standards. The American Academy was only formed in 1965, so it would have been in its infancy, and I believe the ABCD came along much much later. |
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| (1979801) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 13:25:58 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Feb 4 11:17:03 2024. Death rates at all ages have dropped, for both men and women.Less smoking, better heart and cancer treatments. For a long time auto accident rates were dropping as cars became safer. |
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| (1979802) | |
Re: $83 million |
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Posted by AlM on Sun Feb 4 13:29:05 2024, in response to Re: $83 million, posted by Charles G on Sun Feb 4 11:28:36 2024. Agreed to all of that. If you cut a lot of corners, probably no one would ever find out. |
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