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Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Wed May 10 22:10:59 2017

The Conversation

Trump will likely win reelection in 2020

Musa al-Gharbi
May 10, 2017 9.05pm EDT
Most Americans don’t like Trump.

Trump will most likely be re-elected in 2020.

How can both of these statements be true? Here’s how:

Even when people are unhappy with a state of affairs, they are usually disinclined to change it. In my area of research, the cognitive and behavioral sciences, this is known as the “default effect.”

Software and entertainment companies exploit this tendency to empower programs to collect as much data as possible from consumers, or to keep us glued to our seats for “one more episode” of a streaming show. Overall, only 5 percent of users ever change these settings, despite widespread concerns about how companies might be using collected information or manipulating people’s choices.

The default effect also powerfully shapes U.S. politics.

Four more years

Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected to four consecutive terms as president of the United States, serving from the Great Depression to World War II. To prevent future leaders from possibly holding and consolidating power indefinitely, the 22nd Amendment was passed, limiting subsequent officeholders to a maximum of two terms.

Eleven presidents have been elected since then.

Eight of these administrations won a renewed mandate: Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

Even the three single-term aberrations largely underscore the incumbency norm.

Had Ford won in 1976, it would marked three consecutive terms for the GOP. If George H.W. Bush had won in 1996, it would have meant four consecutive Republican terms.

Since 1932, only once has a party held the White House for less than eight years: the administration of Democrat Jimmy Carter from 1976 to 1980.

Therefore, it’s a big deal that Trump is now the default in American politics. Simply by virtue of this, he is likely to be re-elected.

Popularity is overrated

Trump won his first term despite record low approval ratings, triumphing over the marginally less unpopular Hillary Clinton. He will probably be able to repeat this feat if necessary.

The president continues to enjoy staunch support from the voters who put him in the White House. He has raised millions of dollars in small donations for re-election, pulling in twice as much money as Barack Obama in his first 100 days. And he’s already putting that money to use running ads in key states that trumpet his achievements and criticize political rivals.

Although most don’t like or trust Trump, polls show he seems to be meeting or exceeding Americans’ expectations so far. In fact, an ABC News/Washington Post survey suggests that if the election had been held again in late April, Trump would have not only won the Electoral College, but the popular vote as well — despite his declining approval rating.

To further underscore this point, consider congressional re-election patterns.

Since World War II, the incumbency rate has been about 80 percent for the House of Representatives and 73 percent for the Senate. Going into the 2016 election, Congress’ approval rating was at an abysmal 15 percent. Yet their incumbency rate was actually higher than usual: 97 percent in the House and 98 percent in the Senate.

As a function of the default effect, the particular seats which happen to be open this cycle, and Republican dominance of state governments which has allowed them to draw key congressional districts in their favor — it will be extremely difficult for Democrats to gain even a simple majority in the Senate in 2018. The House? Even less likely.

Trump … or who?

Due to the default effect, what matters most is not how the public feels about the incumbent, but how they feel about the most likely alternative.

Carter didn’t just have low approval ratings, he also had to square off against Ronald Reagan. “The Gipper” was well-known, relatable and media-savvy. Although the Washington establishment largely wrote off his platform with derisive terms like “voodoo economics,” the American public found him to be a visionary and inspirational leader — awarding him two consecutive landslide victories.

Trump’s opposition is in much worse shape. The Democratic Party has been hemorrhaging voters for the better part of a decade. Democrats are viewed as being more “out of touch” with average Americans than Trump or the Republicans. Yet key players in the DNC still resist making substantive changes to the party’s platform and strategy. Hence it remains unclear how Democrats will broaden their coalition, or even prevent its continued erosion.

Trump is not likely to follow in Carter’s footsteps. Other modern precedents seem more plausible.

For instance, Truman had an approval rating of around 39 percent going into the 1948 election, yet managed to beat challenger Thomas Dewey by more than two million in the popular vote, and 114 in the Electoral College. The president had been holding raucous rallies in key states and districts, growing ever-larger as the race neared its end. However, the media disregarded these displays of support because his base was not well-captured in polls. As a result, his victory came as a total surprise to virtually everyone. Sound familiar?

One could also look to Trump’s harbinger, Richard Nixon. Throughout Nixon’s tenure as president, he was loathed by the media. Temperamentally, he was paranoid, narcissistic and often petty. Nonetheless, Nixon was re-elected in 1972 by one of the largest margins in U.S. history — winning the popular vote by more than 22 percentage points and the Electoral College by a spread of over 500.

Of course, Nixon ultimately resigned under threat of impeachment. But not before he radically reshaped the Supreme Court, pushing it dramatically rightward for more than a generation. Trump is already well on his way in this regard.

And like Nixon, Trump is unlikely to be impeached until his second term, if at all.

Impeachment would require a majority in the House. Removing Trump from office would require at least a two-thirds vote in the Senate as well.

Nixon faced impeachment because, even after his landslide re-election, Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. Clinton was impeached in 1998 by a Republican-controlled House, but was acquitted in the Senate because the GOP controlled only 55 seats.

Without massive Republican defections, Democrats will not be in a position to impeach Trump, let alone achieve the two-thirds majority required in the Senate to actually remove him from the Oval Office. The 2018 elections will not change this reality.

In other words, we can count on Trump surviving his first term — and likely winning a second.

Consider the example of George W. Bush, who, like Trump, assumed the presidency after losing the popular vote but taking the Electoral College. His tenure in office diverged wildly from his campaign commitments. He was prone to embarrassing gaffes. He was widely panned as ignorant and unqualified. Forced to rely heavily upon his ill-chosen advisors, he presided over some of the biggest foreign policy blunders in recent American history. Many of his actions in office were legally dubious as well. Yet he won re-election in 2004 by a healthy 3.5 million votes — in part because the Democrats nominated John Kerry to replace him.

Without question, Kerry was well-informed and highly qualified. He was not, however, particularly charismatic. His cautious, pragmatic approach to politics made him seem weak and indecisive compared to Bush. His long tenure in Washington exacerbated this problem, providing his opponents with plenty of “flip-flops” to highlight — suggesting he lacked firm convictions, resolve or vision.

If Democrats think they will sweep the 2020 general election simply by nominating another “grownup,” then they’re almost certainly going to have another losing ticket.

For Trump to be the next Jimmy Carter, it won’t be enough to count on his administration to fail. Democrats will also have to produce their own Ronald Reagan to depose him. So far, the prospects don’t look great.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by LuchAAA on Wed May 10 22:12:06 2017, in response to Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Wed May 10 22:10:59 2017.

my guess is The Rock is going to run against Trump.

That would be funny.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Spider-Pig on Wed May 10 23:15:33 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by LuchAAA on Wed May 10 22:12:06 2017.

So it has come to this.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 00:50:28 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed May 10 23:15:33 2017.

yes.

Trump's victory will have other millionaire and billionaire celebrities thinking they can win too.

Rock said today he's thinking about running because he is offended by the Trump's travel ban. I challenge Rock to book an extended stay in each of the seven countries on the List.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu May 11 01:16:56 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Spider-Pig on Wed May 10 23:15:33 2017.

LOLOL!! Ain't America grand??

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu May 11 01:17:31 2017, in response to Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Wed May 10 22:10:59 2017.

Yes, he is going to win again in 2020.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 01:34:47 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu May 11 01:17:31 2017.

I think the GOP will "primary" Trump.

Not sure if they'll win, but this is a circus like atmosphere so it almost has to have a primary opponent.

Politicians are upset that Trump won. He's an outsider and they have to get the White House back.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu May 11 01:38:35 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 01:34:47 2017.

I agree with what you said! The politicians want the presidency back

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 02:19:40 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 01:34:47 2017.

I think the GOP will "primary" Trump

Oh, they might. Especially if the RINOs feel it's their turn to "lose". But they will be surprised yet again, most likely.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Fred G on Thu May 11 02:27:27 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by BILLBKLYN on Thu May 11 01:17:31 2017.

We'll see. It's hard to take anything seriously about an election that's three years away, given the volatility that is the American experience these days.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Thu May 11 02:45:35 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 00:50:28 2017.

I actually hear good things about Egypt, now that the rebels have been deposed and a normal government is back in control...

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 02:50:48 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Thu May 11 02:45:35 2017.

if it means this much to The Rock that he would run for office, he should do a 14 week tour, spending two weeks in each country.

Of course he won't do that.

Liberals like to stand on moral high ground. If someone ambushed The Rock with the question, "Can you name the seven countries on the ban list"? he probably could not answer it.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 02:53:24 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 02:50:48 2017.

I think it's only six countries now.

But my point is valid.

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Re:

Posted by B68 SLOW POKE on Thu May 11 03:16:53 2017, in response to Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Wed May 10 22:10:59 2017.

USA

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by AlM on Thu May 11 08:24:43 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Thu May 11 02:45:35 2017.

Really?

Being better than the Muslim Brotherhood is not a high bar.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 08:42:49 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 02:50:48 2017.

Liberals like to stand on moral high ground

Oh, this again. When one has no morality, how does one do that?

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 08:44:01 2017, in response to Re:, posted by B68 SLOW POKE on Thu May 11 03:16:53 2017.

That really has nothing to do with the thread.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by R2ChinaTown on Thu May 11 09:54:54 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 08:42:49 2017.

They simply claim the moral high ground. Hillary claims to be the victim of a tampered with election after she and her coconspirators were caught tampering in the primaries.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 10:04:45 2017, in response to Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Wed May 10 22:10:59 2017.

"Most Americans don’t like Trump.

Trump will most likely be re-elected in 2020.

How can both of these statements be true? Here’s how:"


Consumer confidence is hitting highs not seen in decades. Jobs postings are at highs not seen in decades. Spending is ^^^.

So how can both statements be true? Here's how:

Polls are bullcrap, especially if they're going to survey 2 demonkkkrats for every other person.

Remember when everyone knew we were going into a depression, but people still polled they'd love to have a beer with nobama?

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 10:07:58 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 10:04:45 2017.

Consumer confidence is hitting highs not seen in decades. Jobs postings are at highs not seen in decades.

God Bless Barack Obama!

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:19:42 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 10:07:58 2017.

Just like Bush when Obama was in office e, and "Bush isn't president anymore", Obama isn't president anymore.

God Bless President Trump.

And I didn't even vote for him, but the more the left continues in their unseen ever before butthurt, the further they lose credibility in my eyes, and the further I move from agreeing with them. They built their grave.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 10:27:48 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:19:42 2017.

When Bush was in office, for the first few years, Clinton was blamed. Then, when Obama was in Office, Bush was blamed. Why do former presidents only get blame and not credit? Trump hasn't been in office long enough to have an effect on the economy, especially since the president has a very weak effect on the economy.

You've been a right winger for years. Your claims of moving away from the Democrats are meaningless. It's like me saying that I'll never vote for a Republican again.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by R30A on Thu May 11 10:31:27 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:19:42 2017.

Economic effects lag. This is all Obama still.


But onto your continuing irrelevant rant, why would Democrats want you to agree with them? A Center-Left party is probably not representing its supporters if right wingers like them.



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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:39:59 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 10:27:48 2017.

But I did vote for Democrats last election...just not Hillary

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:40:36 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by R30A on Thu May 11 10:31:27 2017.

It's no longer a "center" left party.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 10:43:59 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:19:42 2017.

Obama is a Democrat and "black". Therefore, when everyone is on the streets, and the mcdonalds closed, he is doing great. When he vanishes and people gain confidence, then we can credit him for life.

In 2050, the CULT will still worship him for laying the groundwork.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 10:44:33 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:40:36 2017.

The center left are those who want the Arabs to destroy the Jews.
The radical left are those who do it themselves.


There's still a center left party.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 10:52:12 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 10:07:58 2017.

Yes, praise him that Obama left office willingly. Wasn't it cool how all the positive things happened MINUTES after the election!! Not a so-called economic lag, not days, nor months, but the MOMENT!

Just shows how wrong the NYTimes/CNN/et al. were.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by AlM on Thu May 11 11:00:41 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:40:36 2017.

Right. RomneyCare, the current graduated income tax rates, Obama's trade policies, and Obama's environmental policies are all not centrist.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:02:01 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:19:42 2017.

but the more the left continues in their unseen ever before butthurt, the further they lose credibility in my eyes

Why would the left have credibility in the first place? A movement that wants to abolish family, religion, private property and borders really is credible?

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by https://salaamallah.com/ on Thu May 11 11:03:30 2017, in response to Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Wed May 10 22:10:59 2017.

we will '''C''' about this
LOL

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:03:48 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:40:36 2017.

Not that there really is "center" left. You can't be for abolition of family/private property/religion/borders and against it at the same time.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:04:52 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by R2ChinaTown on Thu May 11 09:54:54 2017.

They simply claim the moral high ground

Yeah, without a single moral basis.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by R30A on Thu May 11 11:07:45 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:40:36 2017.

You have no frame of reference.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by R30A on Thu May 11 11:07:45 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:40:36 2017.

You have no frame of reference.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 11:08:56 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:02:01 2017.

When you abolish all of that, and the police (don't forget), maybe even prisons.

The left won't have anything to govern, or plunder. It all works out in the end.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 11:09:29 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by AlM on Thu May 11 11:00:41 2017.

Gosh, I hope destroying the environment isn't what it takes to be a centrist. The way Cali and Mich. got screwed.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 11:10:07 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by R30A on Thu May 11 11:07:45 2017.

I'll give the frame of reference, using the internets favourite subject.

The center left are those who want the Arabs to destroy the Jews.
The radical left are those who do it themselves.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 11:11:51 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by R30A on Thu May 11 11:07:45 2017.

The Overton Window in the US is so awfully skewed that the Democrats, who would be a center-right party in any normal country, are considered far left.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Fred G on Thu May 11 11:12:12 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by AlM on Thu May 11 11:00:41 2017.

IAWTSP

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 11:12:54 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Fred G on Thu May 11 11:12:12 2017.

You agree with The Spider-Pig? Thanks!

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:13:16 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 11:09:29 2017.

Yeah; ruled by "centrists" for multiple decades.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:15:33 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 11:08:56 2017.

The left never abolishes the police; they merely replace them with uniformed thugs.

They claim that once the state becomes all-powerful, it'll somehow magically "wither away" leaving a governmentless utopia in its place. They never say how, though.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:15:58 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 10:39:59 2017.

Why?

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Fred G on Thu May 11 11:16:28 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Spider-Pig on Thu May 11 11:12:54 2017.

Haha yes!

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by gp38/r42 chris on Thu May 11 11:34:07 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Olog-hai on Thu May 11 11:15:58 2017.

I'm asking that myself

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Thu May 11 18:46:03 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by AlM on Thu May 11 08:24:43 2017.

A christian co-worker took his family there and had no problems. Of course they all speak Arabic, which probably helped...

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by AlM on Thu May 11 18:53:29 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Thu May 11 18:46:03 2017.

Very nice.

If one were to say (in Arabic) the things about Sisi that people here say about Trump, one would be in serious danger of being arrested and put into a very miserable jail.

I realize there are worse things in this world than not having the freedom to speak one's mind, and perhaps things were worse before. But that doesn't make them good now.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 19:22:51 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by LuchAAA on Thu May 11 00:50:28 2017.

You forget Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwratzenager, Rick Scott, etc.

This is America, you don't need to major in poly sci to be Prez.

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Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020

Posted by orange blossom special on Thu May 11 19:23:53 2017, in response to Re: Columbia University sociology fellow predicts Trump will likely be re-elected in 2020, posted by Henry R32 #3730 on Thu May 11 02:45:35 2017.

I wish, but they don't seem to have total control, or that they just don't care that ISIS is completely cleansing Egypt. Those people have been there for thousands of years.

I believe they also destroyed an antiquies library too.

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