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| Re: Egypt Revolts! (727417) | |||
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Re: Egypt Revolts! |
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Posted by Peter Rosa on Sun Jan 30 16:06:08 2011, in response to Re: Egypt Revolts!, posted by AlM on Sun Jan 30 15:06:19 2011. On the other hand, there have been a few like Taiwan, South Korea, and Indonesia where they were fairly repressive, and yet gave up before they really had to. I don't really know why those worked.Our old friend demographics may hold the answer. Countries that have successfully transitioned from repressive governments to liberal democracies, including the ones you noted plus a couple others such as Chile and Brazil, all have had intermediate age structures at the time, meaning that the median age of the population was 25 or older. Countries with younger populations have a very poor record in this respect. Egypt isn't quite there yet, but it's close, with a median age of 24. It's in much better condition than the Palestinian territories or Yemen, both of which have a median age of only 18 (Gaza is the lowest in the world at just 15). The recent uprising in Tunisia should turn out well, as Tunisia's median age is just under 30. My blog |
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