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| Re: New Hampshire Results (1978548) | |||
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Re: New Hampshire Results |
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Posted by mtk52983 on Fri Jan 26 05:35:02 2024, in response to Re: New Hampshire Results, posted by Olog-hai on Fri Jan 26 01:20:49 2024. It is not “utterly statistically impossible.”Your calculations assume, without evidence, that the make up of the electorate matched what it was in 2016. However, there were plenty of differences that galvanized more people to vote in 2020. First, measures adopted by states in response to COVID made it easier for those legally registered/able to vote to do so. This was especially true among the working poor who often struggle to come out on Election Day because they are incapable of taking the time off from work to vote. If you are working two jobs and both require you to be there on Election Day when exactly will you have time to vote? These voters tend to skew Democrat. This is not a debate about whether that is actually in their best interest, but just that is how they tend to vote. Second, a lot of people just did not vote in 2016 because they did not think Trump or Shrillary would be all that different. The same attitude that gets Trump a lot of supporters also turned off more of those who were indifferent in 2016. Rather than sit home in 2020 like they did in 2016, they voted for Biden because he was not Trump. What the recent polling shows is that there is a real danger for Biden that they are going to go back to their 2016 behavior and sit home. To win in 2024, it is not just about getting his base to come to the polls, but mellowing his image/public platform can get enough Biden voters from 2020 just to not vote in 2024. While Trump would like them to vote for him (so he can have the most votes ever), just getting them to not vote for Biden is enough to secure the win. |
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