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| Re: Now It Hits Home. (1898093) | |||
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Re: Now It Hits Home. |
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Posted by Stephen Bauman on Wed May 18 11:50:43 2022, in response to Re: Now It Hits Home., posted by Jeff Rosen on Tue May 17 23:31:33 2022. it really worked in New Zealand, the place you thought would never get an outbreak due to their great containment processes.It worked in New Zealand. NZ relaxed its border restrictions shortly before each outbreak. Start with the first graph on the link you provided. Switch to the logarithmic scale to see the stages of NZ's Covid infections. Here's a log cumulative comparison showing NZ and the US.  Both countries experienced their first diagnosed cases at about the same time but took different approaches, starting in March 2020. You can see NZ's total cases leveled off in the middle of April 2020. Starting in April 2020, NZ's case counts include both community cases and those that were contained at the border with it's Mandatory Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) policy. The actual growth in NZ's community cases is less than the relatively flat increase shown in the graph. There were no internal restrictions in NZ during this time. Occasional community outbreaks were contained through swift application of contact tracing and isolation. The first relaxation in the MIQ requirements occurred on 19 April 2021, between New Zealand and Australia. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56796679 Aussies, who tested negative for Covid, were permitted to travel into NZ without going through the 14 day stay at an MIQ facility. Both Australia and NZ were assumed to be Covid free at that time. Covid outbreaks occurred in Melbourne and Sydney during May 2021. This was followed by the appearance of community cases in New Zealand. Contact tracing determined the outbreak was caused by a single Aussie, who tested negative during his brief NZ stay but tested positive on his return. This Aussie was initially infected in Australia, based on Covid's incubation period and genomic sequencing. NZ stopped the Australia-New Zealand travel bubble, starting on 23 July 2021. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealand-suspends-quarantine-free-travel-with-australia-2021-07-23/ The Australia-New Zealand travel bubble was re-opened on 1 Nov 2021. https://www.travelpulse.com/news/destinations/australia-new-zealand-travel-bubble-resumes-in-run-up-to-reopening.html This was just before the Omicron wave started to hit. NZ rescinded the bubble on 21 Dec 2021. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/12/21/new-zealand-delays-border-reopening-to-february-over-omicron NZ did come up with a Covid exit strategy in mid to late 2021. It relied on a high vaccination rate, which NZ achieved. NZ decided to trust the vaccine and started re-opening its borders on 27 Feb 2022. Here's a description of the stages. https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/border-reopen-stages-27-february As you can see, NZ's current case surge coincides with this staged re-opening. New Zealand has changed from a containment to a re-infection policy, starting in April 2021. The results have confirmed a containment strategy's effectiveness, rather than having contradicted it. |
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